Click the different values to calculate the gross Cost (just imports) in Billions of $AUST :   Future
Future Cost of imports with no local production in Billions (virtually nothing by 2030) :   Future
Select the price of a barrel of Oil.Change the Aust dollar compared to US dollar.
Future Cost of imports with no local production in Billions (virtually nothing by 2030) :   Future
Select the price of a barrel of Oil.Change the Aust dollar compared to US dollar.
In other words, sometime between 2020 to 2030, we have to find an extra:   $Future  Billion to do the exact same we are doing today.
Note: These calculations are simplified for ease of understanding. It's purpose is to make a point that the bill has gotten big and is getting bigger.
.............
According to the DFAT document Trade at a glance 2011, our top 3 imports were;
- Crude Petrolium. $20.830 billion. (75% used for transport; $15 billion)
- Refined Petrolium. $14.305 billion.
- Passenger Vehicles. $14.159 billion.
Although 2000 - 2001 was a peak in production the cost is getting huge.
Transport accounts for 75% of the Oil.
I believe that if Australia as united entity decided together that we should switch to Electric vehicles, we could eliminate sending 10's of billions of dollars per annum to foriegn countries, save car manufacturing by ramping up Toyota's production and avoid a possible iminent Oil supply/demand crash.
If we made and purchased electric vehicles such as the Toyota Camry Hybrids (note), we could substantially reduce our third biggest cost, importing cars.
(Note: Personally I think Plug-in Hybrids are significantly better than current Hybrids, or better yet, all electric.)
List of Car Manufacturers making Electric Vehicles
Toyota Prius and Camery
Chevrolet
Ford Focus
Tesla Model S: 100 km/h in 4.2 sec, up to 424 km range.
Mitsubishi MiEV
Nissan Leaf
BMW
Mercedes-Benz
hyundai-unveils-its-first-electric-car--blueon-Hyundi
Mazda
SUMMERY
17 million vehicles in Australia.
1 million in new vehicle sales per year.
As its impossible to jump to 100% sales, my guess it will take minimum 25 years to change over.
If we started at 2017, we finish at 2042.
However, well before then, the price of petrol will be well over $2 per litre and we will have spent a huge amount of money importing oil.
Every car manufacturer is making, or planning to make an electric car or hybrid. This in itself should tell you something. (see Peak Oil, read more...)
If you own a large petrol vehicle and live in an outer suburb with no public transport, after 2020 you have a problem. Your vehicle will be what is called "a stranded Asset" (low resale value). And your fuel bill will get much bigger.